Analysts expect T-Mobile to remain “fastest-growing” carrier in Q2 results

03/26/2014 T-Mobile Un-Leash Announcement

It’s expected that T-Mobile will announce its second quarter results towards the end of this month, on July 31st. And many analysts are expecting its strong performance in revenue and subscriber growth to continue. Industry analyst, John Hodulik of UBS expects T-Mobile “to emerge as the fastest-growing wireless company in the U.S., with 7% service-revenue growth as subscriber adds slow but remain solid.”

After Q1 results, it would be incredible if T-Mobile managed to even match its results quarter-on-quarter. It added an impressive 2.4 million net adds between January 1st and the end of March. It was the first time it had reached over 2 million, and was its biggest quarter ever. So it’s not entirely surprising to hear analysts predict a “not as strong” quarter for Q2.

But as Uncarrier moves continue to be successful, analysts argue that this could scupper any plans by the company to merge with Sprint and form a 3rd super-carrier. Solid performance and healthy growth would suggest that T-Mo is a strong competitor on its own, especially if it keeps matching or outperforming its biggest rivals.

It will be interesting to see how Magenta performed in Q2. Mostly because there were no “Uncarrier” branded moves until the last month of the quarter, in which it introduced phases 5.0 and 6.0 offering a 7-day test drive, and free, unlimited music streaming for customers on Simple Choice. And neither of those, I suspect, will have anything like the impact the early termination fee move did when it was introduced at CES in January.

What about you guys? Do you see T-Mo reaching anywhere near 2 million net adds again? Was it a once-in-a-blue-moon thing? Let us know below.

Via: Investors

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  • bkin94

    The test drive isn’t as big as unCarrier 4, but test drive + unCarrier 4 is a killer combo. So I’m thinking between 1.3m and 1.7m additions

  • sushimane

    I’m gonna say at least 1.5 million.

    • maximus1901

      Your butt called. It wants its numbers back lol. Jk

      • sushimane

        What u guess. How much u guess that they add

        • maximus1901

          I’m not an analyst with models to predict. I’m not gonna start pulling numbers out of MY butt. Cam posed a question to people incapable of answering it. Probably was rhetorical.

        • sushimane

          Lol its just a guessing game. Even analyst get this wrong.

  • Tmo1082

    Q1 was in the middle of tax season now people are taking vacations and buying school supplies instead of cell phones. I think it will be slower in terms of voice lines but the free gigabite for mobile broadband devices will make up for that.

    • Jay J. Blanco

      I totally took advantage of the 100 off tablet promotion

    • Stefan Naumowicz

      School season is a very busy time for cell phones

  • monkeybutts

    I think T-mobile will see some growth maybe 1-2 million in Q2 as it is when the top Android phones the GS5 and the HTC One M8 were released.

    Brand new devices make people switch. I know a lot of people who want to switch to T-mobile but don’t want to pay full price for an iPhone 5s, and would rather wait the 2-3 months till the iPhone 6 comes out before they switch.

    I think we will a lot more adds from the mobile internet devices though since LTE iPads and other tablets were sold at WiFi prices early in Q2 as well. Pretty much cleared all of the Nexus 7s they had in stock.

    • Bilesha Welton

      Speaking of tablets, I really want a Windows tablet that’s compatible with T-Mobile 4G LTE. Anyone know of an option out there?
      HSPA is fine, so is Windows RT but I’d rather have Windows 8 Pro with 4G LTE.

      • monkeybutts

        T-mobile is supposedly making a sales decision on 3 different Nokia products over the next 5 weeks. Two of the rumored devices are the Lumia 2520 Windows RT tablet, and the Lumia 1525. With release dates from late August to the middle of October according to evleaks

        • Bilesha Welton

          Awesome! Thanks for the info!

  • Bilesha Welton

    Hope to see it take the #3 spot from”sprinting backwards”

    • maximus1901

      It’ll be a different story when sprint deploys 2.5ghz.

      • http://twitter.com/SParKlngCyaNide SparklingCyanide

        Sprint Apologist? Sure sounds like it.

        • maximus1901

          Giving facts.

        • Adrayven

          twisted ones.. lol

          Sprinkle a little fact in with the lie.. lol sounds great!

      • UMA_Fan

        The 2.5ghz will be limited to big cities. T-Mobile has a great high band spectrum network working fine all they need is low band spectrum to complement it. Sprint has neither a good network with it’s high band OR low band spectrum.

        • maximus1901

          No it won’t. It’ll be deployed to ALL sprint sites.

        • maximus1901

          Sprint has 5×5 800mhz lte and one 1x voice channel on 800mhz soooooo yeah.
          But they can’t deploy 800mhz within 100km or so of canada or Mexico border.

        • maximus1901

          Sprint doesn’t have enough pcs lte, making its network today slow. In some or most places, sprint has enough pcs to add second 5×5 pcs lte but that won’t be enough to match tmus. 2.5 ghz is what’s gonna make the differenxe

      • Trevnerdio

        Different story with the non-existent indoor coverage

        • maximus1901

          TMO’s no better. No one gets indoor lte at my house but 4g Hspa is fine.

          That’d what sprints pcs lte, 800 lte, pcs evdo. With upgraded backhaul, evdo on sprint performs 1-2mbps.

        • Trevnerdio

          But if 1900/2100 has trouble getting through walls, 2500…forget about it. That’s why everyone else is going the other way to 600 and 700. They’d rather sacrifice a little speed for more reliability.

        • maximus1901

          Site density.

        • monkeybutts

          Lol would you trust Sprint with more towers to mess up?

        • Adrayven

          which is a LOT more costly with 2500

        • DirkDigg1er

          Yes. Initially TDD LTE has higher deployment cost but will offer unmatched speeds and growth path for years to come.

        • Adrayven

          Will be as 700A clears out..

      • redman12

        Sprint customers has been waiting for years for network upgrade. Pretty embarrassing deployment if you ask me.

  • Eric

    When T-Mobile buys (most? all?) of the 700A MHz spectrum, I’ll feel sorry for the competition and their customers who will switch to T-Mobile.

    • maximus1901

      Ch51 exclusion zones. Google it. The map will sadden you.

      • Michael

        Unfortunately the greater Memphis TN area is excluded due to a channel 51.

        • maximus1901

          At the latest ch51 will be cleared late 2018

        • TylerCameron

          I’m in Walls, MS on Vacation and can only get EDGE on T-Mobile :/

      • Adrayven

        Initially, but all those CH51′s will eventually move by 2016 mostly.. a few holdouts to 2018.. it’s not an if.. it’s a when..

    • markx

      With what money?

      • Eric

        Stock, cash, debt, parent company, etc…

        • markx

          Cant buy spectrum with stock. There . is no cash. Parent company? DT ceo wont spend a dime on us.

  • G

    1.2 – 1.5 million will be a safe bet

  • taron19119

    So when does Sprint give its q2 2014 results

  • Kidney_Thief

    Mark your calendars for another merger rumor on July 30th, then.

  • markx

    And still losing hundreds of millons of dollars.

    • Adrayven

      Hardly if they are on plan..

      • markx

        They lost 200 million last quarter. What are you smoking. What Plan?

    • Stefan Naumowicz

      The phones they buy and then give to customers for nothing down, and the commission they pay to their employees/retailers for every new activation costs ALOT of money, its fine to lose money when your adding sub’s at the rate they have been. It will pay off in revenue down the road and increasing company value.

      • nomobs

        Tell stock holders “its fine to lose money”. Youre clueless. Investors dont give a damn about subs. They demand a return on thier investment. The simple fact is that it will be impossible to turn a profit offering unlimited data for low costs. This company hasnt turned a profit since Q1 of 2013. All of you lil Legere cheerleaders apparently dont understand capitalism. Legere took a struggling, profitable company and turned it into a struggling mess losing hundreds of millions of investor dollars. The Only reason he’s been able to do anything with thier pathetic network is because of the billions of dollars AT&T handed to him. Otherwise it would still be Edge or HSPA at best. AT&T paid for tmobile’s LTE network, as spotty as it is. Unlimited data is not sustainable if you Must make a profit. The time for fairy tales will soon be over.

        • Justin Merithew

          “Investors don’t give a damn about subs”. That’s an odd statement. Making moves to gain subs is the company doing it’s own form of investing. Subs are how you make money. You can have the most efficient cellphone carrier in the world, but if they only have 150 subs you’re not going to bring in money. Subs do matter, because that is how money is made, and only an ignorant investor would think otherwise.

        • nomobs

          Another clueless dummy. Q1 2013 tmobile made a 116 million dollar profit. Q1 2014. Millions of new subs. Tmo Lost 160 million dollars. You dont make money/profit by sub numbers. You make a profit by charging enough $$$ per sub to be profitable. And you obviously dont have a clue about investors/stockholders. They want a Return on Investment Today. This quarter. Not years down the road.

        • Justin Merithew

          In order to charge enough you need the coverage to back it up. If they go toe to toe with AT&T and Verizon in pricing right now what would be the reasoning for people to stick with T-Mobile? If you’re paying the same everywhere you might as well with the best coverage. They’re doing the right thing now, they need to undercut, but not to the point where they bankrupt themselves, and do things to attract new customers, to make building out more coverage viable. Then, once they have a comparable network in size and with their edge in speed, they can consider possibly raising prices.

        • nomobs

          You are Correct friend. The future at tmo is No unlimited data and higher prices. I couldnt agree more. Anybody that thinks otherwise is in lala land. For all of Legere’s craptalk lets not forget he started in this industry and spent Years as an executive with AT&T (along with Dan Hesse). He knows what it will take to make/sustain profitability.

        • dtam

          yes you are supposed to charge enough $$$ per sub to be profitable but just because they lost 160 million in Q1 2014 doesn’t mean their model isn’t charging enough $$$ per sub. Considering the amount of money they are spending on network upgrades (which should be continual) and the high cost of acquiring the new subs by paying off ETFs (which is just a high upfront fee), tmo is in a great position. after spending the upfront ETF fee, they just have to make $21.33 /month off of each on the new subscribers to close the $160 million /quarter. Investors also invest for growth potential.

        • yaby1979

          If youre losing 3 dollars per sub per quarter the problem/solution is higher revenue per sub. Hence….say adios to unlimited data. Sooner or later. Its not about sub numbers. Its dollars per sub.

        • cwarocks

          The holy grail in this industry is ARPU. Thats ” average revenue per user”. Thats how you make a profit. And build a network. T-Mobile is the industry lowest at an ARPU of $50.43.

        • itguy08

          Amazon has lost money or broke even just about every quarter it has been in business. Yet it is a darling of Wall St…

        • markx

          And that has what to do with the telecommunications industry? Amazon has 40 billion in liquid capital.

        • Aaron Davis

          Are you a T-mobile investor? Will YOU personally lose money if T-mobile isn’t profitable?

          If not, shut the hell up, and enjoy the low prices and cheap data while they last.

          Complaining that a company sucks because it’s too cheap to be profitable is the dumbest thing you could do as a customer.

        • gadget_hero

          If I am not mistaken Sprint has been running a loss since 2005? I would imagine Sprint is in much dire straits. Not to mention SoftBank’s credit worthiness/bond value is taking a toll from bankers over the no-yet-annouched deal. Lets not forget Masa is rich, SoftBank is up to its eyeballs in debt.

        • nomobs

          Exactly! And look at thier great network. What a good company to compare.

        • Stefan Naumowicz

          Wow now your going to talk about investors? go take a look at tmus stock price and return history and try to tell me that investors “aren’t happy” and “aren’t getting a return”. The share price has absolutely sky rocketed in the midst of all this ” losing money” they’re doing. Your foot should be in your mouth right now because that was the worst example you could have chosen to prove your point. Also, Offering unlimited data has nothing to do with them profiting, they aren’t profiting because of the huge amount of money they are spending acquiring customers and upgrading their network. High band spectrum’s strength is large capacity and high performance at a lower cost, because that spectrum is cheaper. That’s why they are able to maintain the best performing network in the nation, even with their customer base growing as fast it is and offering unlimited data for a low price. They are simply using that simple fact as a competitive advantage. If data speeds suffered then you would be right about its in sustainability, but that’s not the case at all.

          Its a very good thing your not a chairman, because you don’t know a thing about business.

        • nomobs

          You really are clueless Mrs.Legere. Stock price has been stagnant for 8 months. You cant pay dividends to stockholders on a loss. Dividends are paid on profits.

        • yaby1979

          They arent profiting because thier ARPU is a joke. Go back to cartoon network Shreck.

        • cwarocks

          Tmobile stock has gone up exactly 8% during the last year, mostly attributable to the purchase of MetroPCS which was a profitable company. The blue chip stocks have increased an average of 19% during the same period .

        • nomobs

          Skyrocketing at 8%. Thats less than half of the market average.

        • nomobs

          Speaking of spectrum AT&T has set aside 15 billion dollars for the 2015 spectrum auction. Verizon has earmarked 20 billion to be used as necessary. Tmobile is trying (unsuccessfully so far) to borrow 10 billion to compete in the same spectrum auction. Now……who will get the Spectrum. Tmobile’s own press release states that this will be the last significant spectrum available for the distant future. Thats Tmobile’s statement. Not mine. No profit=no money =no significant new spectrum.

        • Stefan Naumowicz

          You must not have heard; the FCC is limiting the spectrum available to those who “already have substantial amounts low band spectrum” aka “at&t and Verizon”

        • nomobs

          And you must not be able to read Mrs. Legere. The FCC Chairman proposed that, but it must be voted on by the entire commission. Not likely. Quit being a pathetic cheerleader for a pathetic company.

        • cwarocks

          At least youre consistent. Always wrong. Btw give me a small fries with the Double Whopper.

        • Stefan Naumowicz

          Funny how you can just shoot down well argued and sourced information with absolutely no counter points. Judging by your poor grammar and middle school caliber insults I can only assume you’re a teenage troll.

        • nomobs

          I was in this industry when your mommy and were working at the BK where you now man the milk shake machine. Nice try cheerleader. Got your magenta panties on??

        • thepanttherlady

          Seriously, grow up and knock it off. Why can’t we have decent conversations around here without someone always acting like a child?

        • nomobs

          Go tell your kids what to do. No one is seeking your useless drivel.

        • thepanttherlady

          I can tell you they’re far better behaved than you are right now. :|

        • Willie D

          Spoken like a true AT&T executive.. You don’t understand short term vs long term investing do you?

        • nomobs

          AT&T is spending 21 billion dollars in capital expenditures in the next 12 months. And since you are someone that wouldnt know an investor from a horseshoe crab……virtually all U.S. investors are short term. Welcome to America genius.

        • cwarocks

          Actually the true AT&T executive is your hero John Legere. He spent 23 years at AT&T.

      • AJ

        Stefan, you make a valid point.
        It’s just like financing a car. Most people decide to finance their car because they may not have to means to buy it outright. Same concept with cell phone financing. You’re right, it’ll pay off at the end of the term. Especially when customers can purchase the device off at anytime. Besides, running a successful business involves risk, and this is the risk T-mobile may be making. Who knows, it might just be the #3 carrier soon.

      • riah3907

        Phones that are financed don’t contribute to a loss. The money that customers owe become an account receivable which is an asset and does not count as a loss. You seem to know Nothing about business.

        • Stefan Naumowicz

          Actually, I do. Tmo company valuation (total assets) has increased. If there were losses in this category the cost of hardware would not be a valid explanation, as you pointed out. However, the losses they have posted were strictly cash losses. Hardware expenses are directly attributable to this.

        • riah3907

          Consistently wrong . Tmo company valuation has increased because MetroPCS added 13 billion in value. Break time over BK??

        • Stefan Naumowicz

          Do you realize how contradictory you are being? Please stick to posting under one name, arguing the same stupid opinions across multiple usernames makes you look desperate. I’ll link you to a forum where you can argue about the best Disney movies, your halfwitted and immature insults and tragically ignorant business beliefs will fit in better there.

        • cwarocks

          Thier losses are directly attributable to an unsustainable ARPU.PERIOD,

  • http://www.youtube.com/#/mrjlwilliams J. Williams

    2.2 million is my guess.

  • Fritz

    If TMO manages to add another 2Mill-2.5Mill Subs and Sprint drops down 500K then well be looking at a Head to Head battle in Q3 for the title of Number 3 carrier size in the USA. the next 4 Months are going to be very interesting. I don’t think its possible for TMO to beat its last numbers this time since uncarrier 5/6 were slightly underwhelming. I think when they can boast about nationwide wideband lte/ 2G to LTE expansion being completed things will skyrocket again.

    • Stefan Naumowicz

      There won’t be anywhere near that many sub’s added, probably about half that

      • Fritz

        Last Quater TMO had 2.4Mill Additions (which included MetroPCS numbers) if this analyst is predicting numbers in the same ballpark i wouldnt count another 2Mill combined as a stretch by any means given the momentum we’ve been seeing.

  • jacky

    sprint is losing customers everyday t mobile will be come 3rd largest carrier soon

    • notyourbusiness

      I thought T-Mobile had already surpassed Sprint? I just have to say it’s no surprise they’re doing so well. I don’t see that merger taking place, all things considered.

      • TYLERDERK

        Surpassed Sprint in total Device sales and while Sprint is Bleeding customers T-Mobile is gaining new customers at a record pace never seen before in our industry.

      • monkeybutts

        They surpassed Sprint in smartphone sales. I think they are like 5 million short of sprint customer base still though.

    • Cam Fas

      They don’t need to merge with sprint under any reason

  • jacky

    sprint is eliminating unlimited data plans

    http://tktechnewsblog.wordpress.com/2014/07/18/sprint-to-eliminate-unlimited-data-internal-doc-shows-new-plans/

    its been confirmed by sprint corporate employee, they are doing away with unlimited data plans. This new sprint data plan will most likely be in effect within next 30-45 days

    • Ashton3002

      Wrong jackie they are testing different data plans. Collect all the info before you post it..

  • Macano

    Mmmmmm.

  • Macano

    Mmmm

  • JaswinderSinghJammu

    Not sure why people keep calling it a merger, it more like a takeover by Softbank because they have lined up the financing and DT doesn’t want to keep TMO in the long run. Only good thing would be Legere running the combined company

    • Jay J. Blanco

      It’s definitely not a take over because DT will still hold shares in tmobile and Softbank wants to put the two together meaning merge

      • JaswinderSinghJammu

        It’s not a hostile takeover but definitely a takeover. DT will own shares as an investor. Softball will be the majority shareholder and decision maker.

        • Jay J. Blanco

          The minority shareholders will hold just as much power as Softbank will if the deal is approved. They are only buying 50%

  • Aaron Davis

    Again, as a customer and not a shareholder, why would I care if the company is hemorrhaging money and is only months away from collapse, as long as I get the service I want at a price that I like? Worst case scenario, I transfer my phone and phone number to one of the other carriers. I have nothing to lose, and everything to win, by staying with t-mobile.

    (And before you bring up T-mobile’s poor cell coverage, I spend 99.99% of my time within a metro LTE area, so coverage is a non-issue for me)

    • nomobs

      I dont recall suggesting you leave. Thats up to you. I live in a metro area probably a little larger than you at 6 million people. The 4th largest in the u.s. Although Joke Mobile shows 100% LTE its more like 50. And half of the LTE has dl speeds of less than 2mbps. I came from Vzw with 2 lines of service. Unless youre a data hog its not much cheaper and the service pretty much sucks. Including crappy customer service that regularly takes 15 to 20 minutes to get a rep. My 2 LG G2′s on Vzw were free with contract. I paid $210 a month for 12 gigs of shared data. When i switched in Jan. the G2′s were $549 on tmo each. When you add my tmo service plus taxes plus $50 bucks a month for eip i save about $20 a month. But i do get unlimited, unreliable spotty service. Not worth the difference in cost. And if i switch back now? I still owe $800 on eip so it actually costs more than Vzw etf. It’s all bullshit to quote Legere.

  • dontsh00tmesanta

    im noticing sprint coverage is better now in my area….still lacking lte here but it seems to be coming within weeks according to s4gru

    • monkeybutts

      weeks = years for sprint :P

      • dontsh00tmesanta

        True that

  • Mike

    Glad Tmo is on the move, however, it has got to do something to make its network more reliable. Does no good to say it’s the fastest network and has huge number of pop covered by LTE when the service is so very inconsistent, even in areas that supposedly have robust LTE coverage. Still have dropped call, crapy voice quality and very sloooow data service.

  • Jimmy James

    Hi. When does my HTC One M8 grow to Android 4.4.4? My T-Mobile phone is two versions behind the Developer Edition.

  • riah3907

    Agree