Analysts predict success for T-Mobile throughout 2014 thanks to Uncarrier momentum


There’s no doubt in anyone’s mind that T-Mobile’s Uncarrier movement is a big hit. It’s not just bringing in more customers for T-Mobile than it’s had in years, it’s also forcing other carriers to change their ways and compete. The most recent example of this was Sprint’s promotion, offering up to $650 to customer for trading in, and switching networks. Essentially, a point-by-point copy of Uncarrier 4.0’s “Contract Freedom” plan (except, it’s only a temporary promotion).

Analysts are taking notice too. Jefferies‘ analysis is that T-Mobile’s 1st quarter is set to continue the trend of adding a healthy number of new subscribers (probably at the expense of Sprint). As reported by Fierce Wireless:

“After positive management commentary at investor conferences, and recent price increases, we believe the company’s record 4Q subscriber momentum likely continued into 1Q,” Jefferies analysts wrote of T-Mobile. “As such we have raised our 1Q postpaid net add estimates from 1.0 million to 1.1 million, and fiscal year 2014 from 3.1 million to 3.2 million, above guidance of 2-3 million.”

If T-Mobile did manage to pull in 1.1 million subscribers, that would make  it one of the company’s most successful quarters in the past 12 months. Jefferies‘ analysis goes along with what T-Mobile expects for the year too, as Legere himself predicted between 2-3 million net subscriber increase for 2014. New Street Research analysts predict similar figures, stating that 1.1 million new subscribers in Q1 this year is easily attainable.

Analysts also predict that more and more customers will opt to sign up for the competing carriers’ financing programs, born as a result of T-Mobile’s EIP plans last year.

I’ve said this many times, and will probably say it a few more: Uncarrier is working. It’s disrupting the industry, which is exactly what T-Mobile intended it to do. I just can’t wait to see what the next phase is going to be.

Via: Fierce Wireless

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  • Jay J. Blanco

    T-Mobile wins Sprint loses haha :-D

    • Jason

      Sprint lost along time ago, it just been a slow and painful death ROFL

      • Jay Holm

        Sprint’s been bleeding customers for about 7yrs, it’s pathetic!

  • Jason

    Keep trucking TMobile!!!
    Adding more subscribers will have its own growing pains but it seems like it can only get better from here aslong as there are no boneheaded moves that get set into place and then rethought/rescinded….

  • dontsh00tmesanta

    Bring that 700mhz!

  • UMA_Fan

    How long until they pass Sprint is the real question?

    • Danny Lewis

      Sprint had 55 million during Q4 2013, and T-Mo had 46 million. Maybe a couple of years if things stay the same…

      • S. Ali

        Could be sooner, because there are a LOT of customer waiting to switch if TMO would build coverage in their area.

        • UMA_Fan

          Good point and if they follow through on their plans of eradicating edge from EVERY tower they operate that could really put pressure on Verizon.

        • kalel33

          It’ll put pressure on Sprint but not Verizon. T-mobile native coverage is very small when compared to Verizon. They want to play with Verizon then they need to increase their coverage by at least 5x it’s current coverage.

        • UMA_Fan

          I think the 700mhz will allow them to play in areas they didn’t before. I can imagine they pushed hard for a block because they intend on getting more a block licenses down the road.

        • kalel33

          It does but if you look at the mapping on the 700mhz they purchased then it doesn’t increase their footprint much, plus you have to build towers and backhaul to those areas you never had service with before.

        • vrm

          ?? did you pull this out of a verizon ad ? 5 times ?! That seems to contradict tmobile’s official position that they have native coverage (including 2G) of 280+million. So verizon covers 1400 million ?

        • kalel33

          LOL! That is funny. You don’t understand the difference between population coverage and geographical coverage. Hint: look at Verizon’s native coverage map for the US and then compare it to T-mobile’s. T-mobile’s native coverage is the dark magenta and the rest is other company’s towers that they use for roaming.

      • austinsho

        I don’t think anything is staying the same…..

    • yeah right

      Depends on Tmobile’s momentum really, If they maintain the momentum they had in December (hopefully buoyed by the ETF payments) they could have as many customers as sprint by the end of 2014.

  • Nick Gonzalez

    Yay T-Mo!!

  • ccnet005

    Jefferies and New Street Research?
    Never heard of them until now.
    I wonder what Goldman-Sachs and Morgan Stanley would have to say about TMO.

    • Nearmsp

      Goldman had T-mobile stock in its “conviction buy” list for some time. It is off now that Sprint will not be allowed to buy it. But sooner or later, a European company will buy T-mobile. The problem is that extreme levels of competition in EU has made most Wireless companies broke so there are not too many players. However, it is conceivable private equity groups might buy off T-mobile early next year when all restrictions on T-Mobile Germany are lifted for divestiture.

  • Adrayven

    I’m not sure they need to have a next Uncarrier phase at this point.. They really need to focus on immediate future build out, improving current services, and laying foundation for upgrades/expansion..

    To many focus on the next ‘big’ thing when really, the big thing is to stay focused on your market and not get caught up in hype.

    • Paul

      More customerss = more cash flowing in = more money to build out.

    • Danny Lewis

      They are working on all those aspects and have been since the beginning of last year. The problem is we don’t know when and where they are upgrading services aside from hearsay, press releases, and sightings. They don’t shoot off a firework from each tower that gets upgraded.

      • Austin

        But they really should tho. At this rate, people would see it and switch. Since my parents switched (they’re still on their FIRST billing cycle) 3 towns near us have gone from “4G” to LTE

    • Nathaniel Ily Jacob-Joshua Hud

      maybe that is the next phase?

  • vrm

    It is important to realize that the numbers are all POSTPAID subscribers. So it actually be the best ever quarter, at least in years, if they get 1.1 million postpaid. Q4 2013 brought in < 900k postpaid.

  • vinnyjr

    T-Mobile keeps getting better and better. Data speeds are faster than any other US Carrier, signal is very strong, call quality is the best and even their Customer Service is improving. Thank You T-Mobile. Keep it rolling. My only hope is for T-Mobile to stay just T-Mobile. Hope the company feels this way.

  • monkeybutts

    Can’t wait till the end of the year when they get the 700 A Mhz block here in Northern California. I keep fluctuating from LTE to 4G to E inside and outside of my house. Adding more customers means more money in the future to keep the updates going.

    • Jay J. Blanco

      You have to update your device also. So start saving now

  • gadget_hero

    Between Sprint’s technical problems and the horrible “Framily” brand they are trying to build (with the Frobinsons) I foresee this being a bad year for Sprint. Also how long do you think until T-Mobile sues Sprint for using Magenta in its unabashed copy of paying ones ETF fee to get them to switch to a Framily plan?

  • Considering I have Six coworkers alone leaving Sprint for T-Mobile, I’d say the UnCarrier movement is definitely continuing. Magenta has impressed even myself.

    • t mobile

      great more people to slow it down.

      • Pessimism isn’t a good look on you. I love when people are negative just for the sake of being negative, as if they’d rather see T-Mobile doing terrible rather than gaining subscribers. Honestly, I just don’t get “those people”.

  • Alex Zapata

    TMO has changed a lot since I joined them 4 years ago. Coverage has definitely improved in the past year or so and speeds have increased tremendously. Glad I never left them.

  • Jay Holm

    On the 29th of this month it will be a full year I’ve been with T-Mobile, defected from Verizon, been very happy ever since.

  • UMA_Fan

    It really is an amazing time. They have virtually every popular device. LTE. Unlimited data. Insane to consider a few years ago

  • Nearmsp

    When T-mobile started the uncarrier strategy under its CEO, the industry norm was subsidized phones and expensive plans and 2 year contracts and upgrade fees on top of this. T-mobile, the smallest of the big 4 has shaken the US wireless markets to its core. Wall Street Journal, analysts and even FCC has taken note. AT&T stock which had a buy rating has a sell rating today. Verizon is on hold, analysts are not sure if Verizon also will need to reduce margins to compete with T-mobile. They key is T-mobile’s network expansion. The FCC is devising rules for the new auction that will make it easier for the smaller players like T-mobile to buy up more spectrum. I think the best thing that happened to T-mobile is to get such an unconventional CEO. Spring wants to buy up T-mobile for its survival and the remaining two AT&T and Verizon are providing tacit support so things can go back to the good old days. I hope and pray FCC and FTC do not allow anymore consolidation of the US wireless market and ensures at least 4 big players are there. T-mobile is now listed on the US stock market. The German owners are free to divest and allow other new entrants to buy it up, such as Vodophone. AT&T tried to buy Vodophone after it got a big payout from Verizon (for Verizon wireless), but European regulators consider most US owned internet and network companies tainted by there close and incestuous relationship with NSA and would have none of it for fear of a Trojan horse coming in to EU.

    • Jay Holm

      You should comment more! Good comment!

    • Jay J. Blanco

      Perfectly said

  • Matt

    This is all very encouraging news. I’m looking eagerly awaiting the continued expansion of LTE and the upgrading of the 2G/EDGE network. Once that gets completed, T-Mobile will be a force to be reckoned with.

  • WD

    Just give me coverage inside buildings already. The other day I was at the doctor’s office on the 7th floor and my signal was allover the place. Otherwise, keep up the good work.
    I have been with Tmo et al for 13+ years now. Only my 2nd cell carrier ever

  • Fr0stTr0n

    Now just bring some damn pink coverage in Montana and Idaho…