Android Marketshare Set To Drop, Windows Phone To See Significant Jump By 2016?

So, here’s a bit of a doozy for all you Android fans out there enjoying the meteoric rise of your favorite operating system — the growth won’t last. Well, not only will it not last, it will peak in 2012 and then begin to make way for Windows Phone. According to market research firm IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker report, what goes up, must also come down. The report solidifies Android as the world’s top smartphone OS, but not without a bumpy road ahead.

The IDC report sees 2012 as the beginning of a major shift in smartphone sales, now dominated by Android and iOS. However, during the five-year period between 2012 and 2016, the IDC sees Android’s share of the global smartphone market dipping from 61% to 52.9%, iOS from 20.5% to 19% and here’s the kicker, Windows Phone will balloon from 5.2% in 2012 to 19.2% in 2016, passing iOS as the number two smartphone platform in the world.

“Underpinning the smartphone market is the constantly shifting OS landscape,” IDC analyst Ramon Llamas said. “Android will maintain leadership throughout our forecast, while others will gain more mobile operator partnerships (Apple) or currently find themselves in the midst of a major transition (BlackBerry and Windows Phone/Windows Mobile). What remains to be seen is how these different operating systems – as well as others – will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and encourage replacements.”

As for RIM, the IDC report expects their smartphone market share toremain relatively flat, moving from 6% in 2012 to 5.9% in 2016. Unfortunately, I’m not even sure RIM will be around in 2016, never-mind how much market share their Blackberry platform will still hold.

We should mention that this now the second time the IDC has reported a big rise for Windows Phone, the first happening in March of 2011. It appears that while Windows Phone and their partnership with Nokia have struggled to gain a significant foothold in any market, the IDC’s position on Windows Phone growth will not be deterred.

While any number of factors can and will influence the numbers in this report, especially as we could see another OS jump into the market and find immediate success, or a competitor such as RIM could exit the market completely along with other mitigating factors that could alter the shape of the 2016 market landscape. Still, for right now we can count on Android and Apple to dominate the smartphone market without any viable competitor capable of knocking them down.

BGR

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  • http://profiles.google.com/scottoldfield Scott Oldfield

    As much as I love Android, it will be a good thing to see more competition. …and as long as Apple gets pushed to 3rd! Just kidding (mostly).

    • WW

      I totally concur with you except the “just kidding” part.

  • bitbank

    The person who compiled this report is obviously using some mind-altering substance. The claim that RIM will only lose 0.1% of it’s market share in the next 4 years is silly. If you follow the trend from the past few quarters and look ahead, RIM will be out of business way before then.

    • http://profiles.google.com/scottoldfield Scott Oldfield

      Actually, if you look at that test of the article, they are supposed to drop to 3%. Looks like there was a mix up in the graph. …but yeah, I can’t imagine them still being in business by 2016.

  • Frogger27

    I don’t see it making THAT big of a jump, or Android going down that low especially because of how “polished’ ICS is, it can only get better. Though I have been seeing quite a few more people having WP7 the last few months so it’s gonna go higher, but not that high but who knows dependeds if Microsoft dosent mess it up.

  • Lani

    On the chart the only thing I find close to believable is that in the year 2016, Windows Mobile OS will still be on version 7.  I bet this chart was released for shareholders who are wanting to bail.  My old Windows Mobile was far advanced than Android on my G1(at time of release).

    I was one of those who preferred to step back in reliability (of OS), just for newness.  If that makes any sense…

  • HO ME

    In the Tech World, dont try to predict anything. It’s pointless and worthless. Can you tell exactly how each OS will evolve each year especially Android ???

  • WP’s a superficial beauty

    Last time we saw an analyst’s WP projections, this was supposed to happen a year earlier in 2015.

    Forecasting this far out is the same as throwing crap at the wall and seeing what sticks.

    WP7 is at 2% right now. There’s nothing compelling for consumers to choose WP over iOS or Android right now. It will probably be the same situation later this year with WP8/Jelly Bean/iOS6 so even this projected 5% share for 2012 is a lofty goal.

  • Vim

    Samsung & HTC are making too much money on Android right now to waste money heavily subsidizing Windows Phones the way Nokia is.  And Nokia is burning through its cash so rapidly it has maybe a year and a half before it goes under.  Unless Microsoft buys Nokia, and that’s certainly possible, the Windows revolution will likely stall when Nokia can no longer afford to give its phones away.  

    • illegaloperation

      Actually, HTC is barely making a profit.

      • Vim

        While HTC’s profits have dropped significantly over the past 2 quarters (prior to that every quarter was a record quarter), they are still quite profitable.  Your use of the word “barely” is a bit of a stretch.  I’d much rather be in HTC’s shoes than Nokia’s right now. 

  • http://twitter.com/mike_hilly mike hilly

    Maybe these same experts can tell me the winning lotto numbers for this week.

  • Srapoport

    Wow… these guys must have been on some really good stuff when they ran these numbers!  They really think that Android will drop off that much in favor of Winows, but the Blackberry OS users will pretty much remain the same?  If anything, BB users will drop off once RIM realizes that they need to get out of the hardware business to stay alive and focus on software (which will most likely provide a boost for the Android platform).  Where those users will go will depend on who RIM develops software for, but I am confident that it won’t be Windows. 

  • David Dollman

    It ain’t over till the fat lady sings. Don’t count RIM out yet. BB10 is set to release this fall. The HTML score blows Android and ios out of the water. RIM’s data sipping is also a big selling point in this era of rapidly rising data costs and data caps.

    • ogopogo

       Long time RIM fan – primarily because of the phenomenal data compression and solid hardware…..BUT……although the proverbial “fat lady” is not singing, she is definitely clearing her throat.

      For everyone’s sake, I hope that BB10 is all that they say it will be because competition is really what drives technological advances.

      As for WP – only time will tell. They do have the cash and the resources, and 2016 is a loooong way away.

  • Nicky21

    lol windows phone.

    • xSAVAGEx

      Yeah really… This is a joke. Windows will surpass iOS? Get Real. I see RIM making more progress than a WP.

      • illegaloperation

        RIM doesn’t even have its QNX phones out yet. (and Playbook doesn’t count)

  • TYLERDERK

    I gave my daughter a Lumia 710 she used it for two days and then went back to her horrible HTCWildfire with so littlte internal memory and small but she prefered it many of her apps she could not get on windows phone but she can on Android…I played with the phone it was pretty smooth I thought better then the Wildfire?

    • Wilma Flintstone

      Hey I let my dogs eat generic brand x dog food with barbecue sauce over it and then I let them eat IAMS and my dogs preferred the Generic brand with the Barbecue sauce.  Moral of the story is, anybody can make up a story. :D

  • BigMixxx

    I would not shoot at windows hne. it is pretty stable. however, mobile phone makers have slowed a bit on developing phones. so the drop is warranted. however, i dont see windows hone really jumping out there until microsoft gets its own manifacturing arm, vs partnering with nokia.

    and iOS should proliferate, with as many carriers as it has now.

    btw, apple this is the way you compete, release the device on more carriers….

  • Bruce Banner

    If Microsoft passes Apple I wonder how long before apple tries to sure them to try and remain competitive? Those Cupertino boys are already incensed about being in 2nd place, imagine the new lawsuits if they slip to 3rd. LOL! LOL!

    • Bruce Banner

      how long before apple tries to sue

    • illegaloperation

      I doubt it. Windows Phone looks nothing like iOS.

    • illegaloperation

      I doubt it. Windows Phone looks nothing like iOS.

  • smithgo

    i see apple going up because it has the iPhone on many carriers something that they should have dona before android won the race doing just that. But still google is getting smarter and releasing a line of nexus phones and selling them on their own market at a very tentative price is also a smart move. Windows sorry I don’t see it. 
    When android released their first tablet they were already on top widows is releasing tablets and phones for years and people keeps ignoring them. I would love for them and also blackberry to gain some market to make this race better for all of us but I don’t see it yet.

    • WW

      iOS will get bumps (a big sales bump and small market share bump [mostly upgrades which don't increase market share]) every time they release a new phone/pad but I think they’ve probably reached their cruising altitude.
       
      As regional/small/prepaid carriers get the iPhone, the carrier may get a few new customers wanting to get away from overpaying Red, Blue and Yellow for their service and some existing customers will upgrade (primarily at Android’s expense) but it won’t make a significant difference in the overall mobile OS numbers. If TMo got the iPhone, it’d make a notable difference in TMo’s market share (maybe 1%-5%?) as she poaches iPhone users from the the big 3 and a minor (TMo’s too small to make a large impact) improvement in iPhone market share as some existing TMo customers switch. 
       
      I agree 20% market share for WP seems a bit optimistic but I’d like to see it grow (China may be WP’s best chance). BB won’t be able to recover because the ecosystem is both managed and barren. BB might be able to survive in a niche if they can take advantage of Android’s ecosystem though. 
       
      I’m not holding my breath but I’m hoping to see WebOS rise up and give the major players a bit of competition. 

    • illegaloperation

      What’s Google going to do? Open its own stores and sell Nexus devices to people at unsubsidized price?

      Let’s face it: carriers are gate keepers.

    • illegaloperation

      What’s Google going to do? Open its own stores and sell Nexus devices to people at unsubsidized price?

      Let’s face it: carriers are gate keepers.

  • smithgo

    lol android from 61 to 9??? this is a joke most people that i know don’t even like windows phone and if they have an iPhone they are looking closer to android. just wait for the first moto  nexus.

    • WW

      I’m no statistician and don’t know what CAGR is but that’s some kind of % change (it’s clearly not straight up linear), not overall total market share.

      • charles4

        and also you don’t have a sense of humor

        • WW

          Yeah…if smithgo was joking, that went right past me.

        • WW

          Yeah…if smithgo was joking, that went right past me.

    • Dumbazz

      They said the same about Android when it first came out

    • Zach Mauch

      I think 9% is the growth rate, not the actual market share.  51.2% is their predicted android market share in 2016.  I’m not sure how growth rate translates since they are saying it’s going from 61.0% in 2012.  Maybe they are saying handsets grow, but market share decreases.  Who knows.  You’d probably have to read the whole report to understand it.

    • Zach Mauch

      I think 9% is the growth rate, not the actual market share.  51.2% is their predicted android market share in 2016.  I’m not sure how growth rate translates since they are saying it’s going from 61.0% in 2012.  Maybe they are saying handsets grow, but market share decreases.  Who knows.  You’d probably have to read the whole report to understand it.

  • WW

    If the WP sales numbers for China are correct, WP will see an explosion in the number of available apps (hopefully a good number in English) which is likely to grow the platform. 
     
    I venture that if MS continues planting their walled garden (a la iOS) on the app side, they may gain marketshare (because WP is a good product) but won’t surpass iOS. If they open up the software side of things, they will eventually compete with Android. 
     
    Without arguing which mobile OS is better, I believe the reason that Android has surpassed iOS so resoundingly is that both the hardware and software (apps, not OS) are open. MacOS is arguably better than Windows but this is the same reason that Windows so dominates MacOS in market share. If I want a Mac, I can choose from dozens of models from Apple. If I want a Windows PC, I have dozens of choices of manufacturer and hundreds of choices of model or I can build one myself. 
     
    It’s the freedom and choice of Android (again, hardware AND software, not including OS) that has caused a good, market dominant product (iOS) to lose so much market share so quickly. The price of freedom is a more dangerous and uncertain world but the rewards are great. At least, in the world of mobile communications, people are choosing freedom. MS needs to allow people the freedom to get their software where and how they choose if they want to compete with iOS and Android. 
     
    I’d love to see a 3-5 horse race. Android, iOS, WP.  Maybe BB (falling due to their closed system) and/or WebOS/PalmOS (now open but no hardware makers). 
     
    Just so you know where I’m coming from: I’m an old Windows PDA (non-phone) user. All 4 of my family plan phones are Android. I chose Android over iOS, not because Android was superior (iOS has more and higher average quality apps due to the cultivated garden) but because there were many choices of phone, price, app sources.  With iOS, there’s iPhone 3GS, 4, 4S and one screen size all made by Apple and only one place to get apps.  I pay full price (Value Plan) for my phones so cost wasn’t a factor (not saying “money is no object”, it is). 

    • BigMixxx

       AWESOME…

    • http://ashn.myopenid.com/ Ash

       actually, android is making a killing in china.

  • Dumbazz

    Google is struggling at a clean user experience across multiple devices while Microsoft seems to be doing a much better job.

    • Vim

       Only because they dumped Windows Mobile users over the cliff.  I’m waiting to see if the rumors that Apollo won’t run on handsets with 512MB or less of RAM will pan out.  If that ends up being true than current Lumia 800 and 900 users will also be sent over the cliff. 

      • Dumbazz

        This is the same as what Google has done with Android to users! 

        • Johnnypowell859

          Google hasn’t done anything, and that is where the problem is. Google lets the manufacturers step all over them, but if Google had its way, their latest OS would run on 2 or 3 year old hardware.

        • Vim

          My point exactly.  I don’t know why people keep talking like it’s only an Android issue.  Microsoft does it too.

        • Vim

          My point exactly.  I don’t know why people keep talking like it’s only an Android issue.  Microsoft does it too.

    • Mattcat03

      Yes fragmentation is an issue with Android OS but that’s mainly caused by the Manufacturer because of hardware requirements. Even though almost all older phones can be upgraded to the latest OS version, that doesn’t mean it will run well. Example a rooted phone (early Android phones)  with the latest version ROM.   IOS has that same issue too but its more transparent with Android since there are multiple Manufacturers. I would assume that Google bought Motorola for this particular issue.  Google wants to offer the user a clean android experience without all the carrier’s misc. crap.  

      • Tortionist

        I think that fragmentation is more of a hype than a reality. If it were a reality, then Microsoft should have a very fragmented Windows OS, but they don’t. People want to hype up the fragmentation to feel better about their purchase of an alternative. This is all theory and conjecture at this point, but I see nothing leading serious fragmentation. The problem is that people today are of  the entitlement mindset, thinking they deserve  
        everything without working for it. When a person buys a computer do they worry about an update? Not usually. It should be the same way with smart phones. In fact, most people, the average users, don’t worry about updates with smart phones. Fragmentation is not really an issue for most people. So, I would propose that fragmentation is more of a facade and nothing to worry about.

  • Dumbazz

    Some of you don’t OBSESS about Apple enough. You need to step up your hatred of an inanimate object more!

    • WW

      +1 because you made me lol.

    • WW

      +1 because you made me lol.

      • Dumbazz

        Thanks! It should be a classified as a mental illness to obsess about a phone as much as some of these defects do. They act like Apple barged into their trailer park and took a dump on their shag carpet .

    • The Big Daddy Bear

      I didn’t know “Apple” was an inanimate object. I thought it was a company with people and paperclips and false advertising. Oh, you must be making talking about an actual Apple.

      • Dumbazz

        Your sooo witty. Do I really need to clarify that I am referring to the iPhone? 

        • WW

          I knew you were referring to the iPhone.

  • Mattcat03

    More power for windows mobile OS. This means more competition.  It will put the top 3 companies on their toes which would definitely improve user experience.  More choice is a good thing. I can’t wait till they get into price wars.  Go go Google!!! Thank you for leading the way.

  • Tatdude806

    Does anyone REALLY think that Windows Phone will even be around in 2016?

    • Tortionist

      I think they will, but not at 19.2%. If they do things right, maybe at 8% or even 10%,but not any more than that.

    • None

      Microsoft has an almost endless supply of money to sustain a phone division.  If Microsoft wants it to be around in 2016, then it will.  You may not own one.  You may not know anyone that owns one.  But if Microsoft wants it to be on the shelves in 2016, it will be done.

    • illegaloperation

      Why not?

      It’s an easy to use operating system that doesn’t require much technological knowledge to use.

    • illegaloperation

      Why not?

      It’s an easy to use operating system that doesn’t require much technological knowledge to use.

  • Xavier

    hmm, reading all the comments.

    does anyone feel that maybe windows phone growth will go hand and hand with the future of the xbox 360 and it’s next console 720 in terms of connectivity…because i think it will greatly effect the audience of the windows phone.  and maybe…if proven smooth and effective and totally fresh and intuitive, i can see the windows phone spiking to that number by 2016.

    • Vim

       XBox is the magic arrow in Microsoft’s quiver.  I’m surprised that Microsoft still hasn’t capitalized on it yet, but then again with the current GPU limitations, the current WP handsets just don’t have the graphical horsepower at the moment for anything truly competitive. 

      • Xavier

         well not for gaming completely…but to mimick the use like wii’s tablet…which was announced at E3…and as tech gets stronger/better.  phones will play what 360′s ps3′s can do really soon.

        then by that time…maybe…window’s phone would have gained up to 16% and google having their “gaming” system…

  • Jose Gonzalez

    I’m not an expert, but I believe they are assuming Windows 8 will have an impact on the consumers behavior. Compatibility advantages will maybe drive some corporate users to move to Windows phones.  Also it will make it easier for some users to have a similar interface. But 19% market share is kind of exagerated.

  • Youngtexas_balla06

    That’s great, I use a Samsung Galaxy S 2 & HTC HD7 I love both, uses my GS2 for fun, games, and I love the customizing you can do, but I’m alway having problems, having to reboot and etc… Use my HD7 for business and college work, when I’m away from my iPad, but since the HD7 has came out I’ve had it and not once have I took my battery out…. If they had more appealing things they would kick@$$….. HandsDown

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1280247661 Chris Roberts

    Nothing is ever set in stone and things can change. I don’t believe the theoretical chart because its in the hands of everyone to change and manipulate…

  • Wilma Flintstone

    Uh oh I feel Damage Control coming on Lol.   Anyway, nobody knows the future so we’ll have to see in 4 years what happens.

    • buttman

      Lol! Well said

  • MN

    about RIM: “leading up to holding just 3% of the market in 2016, down from 72% in 2012″

    The chart you posted says they will go from 6% to 5.9%

    it seems you skipped down to the ‘Other’ line and then mistyped 7.2% as 72%

    (I guess based on your opinion of RIM you just assumed RIM was the last item on the list without even looking)

  • Tortionist

    Most of you on here have a valid point or more. I think this chart is a bit off. My theory is that Google will continue to innovate, especially with 3,000+ or 4,000+ new patents under their belt. If they put them to use. I see Android going from 61% to 64% in the next few years. I see IOS dropping a little from 20.5% to 18% due to their continued walled garden effect and minor changes in their newer versions of the I-Phone. I can see windows mobile going from 5.2 % to 8% as they continue to make improvements. Windows 8 and the next version are due out very soon. It’s a decent Operating.  I see Rim going from 6% to 8%, due to the fact that they are totally overhauling their OS and putting out two super phones this year. They will continue to struggle for relevancy though. Their business and enterprise users are what will continue to keep them afloat. The other Operating Systems will struggle even more and drop to 2%  
    due to their lack of innovation and relevancy. This is just a theory, but I think it’s closer to reality than what IDC has predicted.   

  • Tortionist

    Most of you on here have a valid point or more. I think this chart is a bit off. My theory is that Google will continue to innovate, especially with 3,000+ or 4,000+ new patents under their belt. If they put them to use. I see Android going from 61% to 64% in the next few years. I see IOS dropping a little from 20.5% to 18% due to their continued walled garden effect and minor changes in their newer versions of the I-Phone. I can see windows mobile going from 5.2 % to 8% as they continue to make improvements. Windows 8 and the next version are due out very soon. It’s a decent Operating.  I see Rim going from 6% to 8%, due to the fact that they are totally overhauling their OS and putting out two super phones this year. They will continue to struggle for relevancy though. Their business and enterprise users are what will continue to keep them afloat. The other Operating Systems will struggle even more and drop to 2%  
    due to their lack of innovation and relevancy. This is just a theory, but I think it’s closer to reality than what IDC has predicted.   

  • http://cosmicbreeze.tumblr.com/ DtheArtist

    I can see that happening. Honestly, everything get’s old & played no matter how great it is. People get bored with the same ole same ole, no matter how you try to spice it up. It’s just like social networks, 1st there was Myspace (speaking of popularity), then came Facebook, then game Twitter, now people are on Tumblr, etc. etc. Even thou they tried to amp it up some (Myspace) if still failed. Facebook has been trying to do that (& a lot of people don’t like it), etc. etc. Windows Phone are actually very clean, simple, fresh, & convenient. Heck the majority of people have Windows PC’s & laptop’s anyway, so to have a Windows Phone would be very convenient. Then you think of people who use Xbox (Live), & The people who have Zune & Zune passes. If it weren’t for the fact that Android has more variety & more apps, & WP7 hasn’t released a high-end smartphone on T-Mobile, I would’ve made the switch. Just my personal perspective on it.

  • buttman

    I don’t see rim disappearing. Security is their forte, and that’s something the others don’t put a huge emphasis on. I can’t see government agencies ir corporations using android, iOS,or windows to share sensitive Intel. Just won’t happen. That’s what blackberry was built on. Why do you think blackberry has varients of phone models without cameras? Exactly. I’ve yet to see any other platform do this. So, sorry, david. Your speculation is incorrect, but I’ll give you a pass on this one. You’re relatively new to wireless.

    • Brubawil

      Honestly as a Rep for tmobile I sell a lot of tablets W/ honeycomb to gov agencies. But more specifically Samsung tablets do to them having more secure encryption protocols on them

    • WW

      As an Apple non-fan, I should still point out that there was a recent report that the U.S. Federal Government is switching to iOS from BB.  
        
      On the plus side (as an Android user), the Army’s been developing their Joint Battle Command Platform on Android.

  • Y314K

    So still having over 50% of the market is a bad omen somehow…  Everything has a cap…  And 50% is a sweat spot for Android to be or end up for  the next four years…

    I don’t really see WiMO climbing that fast…  As slow as official Android updates are…  And they do take for ever…  WiMo doesn’t even offer any of the next major updates to their few flagship devices…  And I will never buy WiMo for that reason unless u can stick Android on there like with my HD2…

    My HD2 WiMo 6.5 was never updated to WiMo 7…  U needed a new device…  Now there are reports of WiMo 7 devices not getting updated to WiMo 8…  WiMo = being stuck for at least to years with only minor updates…  Unless u’r willing to throw more money at it & buy a new phone…  No thanks…

    The funny thing is I trust MS a bit more with my data/info then Google… But I actually love Android & I only not not like WiMo….

    • Acp7

      First of all WiMo is obsolete- it’s WP7 you should be referring to. Two completely different operating systems. Your WiMo 6.5 never updated to WP7 because they are a complete do over. WP7 is not a build off of WiMo. And the reports that WP7 is not getting the WP8 update have been proven false, by multiple sources. 

      For all the WP7 doubters out there- my only advice is give it a try. Don’t judge before you’ve actually tested it- and stop getting hung over such small details. 

      • Y314K

        Love how that works… WM is not WP… The name is different… No update for u…. U’r snapdragon 1Ghz, 1GB Ram device can’t handle WP because we changed the name… BS!!! And until I see posts of WP7 devices officially updated to WP8… I won’t believe it… It will probably be a Nokia only update BS or something like that…

        WiMo will always be WiMo to me…  lol  And my HD2 had more then enough hardware for WP7…  Yet WiMo decided to force me to purchase a new device with same or even lower hardware specs then my HD2 for a 0.5 update…  Total BS!!!

        I actually enjoy the vertical UI… But only as a theme…  Not as the actual base of the phone….

        And u’r welcome WiMo…  Since we Android users are paying WiMo for it to survive along…  WiMo makes more money from Android hardware makers then their own hardware…

        I can see them picking up 2.5%-5% more in the next 4 years….  But not 10% of market…  Specially with their smaller devices when the trend is BIG…

        Also ask MS where they think the future is… All of sudden their Apps & programs are coming to Android…. Because that is where the market is @… MS is voting with their development resources… SmartGlass on Android anyone…

  • http://twitter.com/fightcrazy Vinny

    Don’t buy it at all. Google is continuing to increase it’s strength. Google is buying everything it can get it hands on, if I were a gambling man I would lay 5 to 1 on Google remaining top dog for a long time. Apple IMO is shooting themselves in the ass by trying to rape instead of innovate. They are the troll dogs and all the sheep will follow them to the slaughter.

    • WW

      This projection predicts that Android will remain top dog so it seems to me that you’re mostly in agreement with it.  
        
      Android stays on top, iOS is still a very distant 2nd, WP gains significantly. You’re over 60% in sync with the report.

  • None

    In technology-years, 2016 is light years away and analysts always underestimate the tech backlash as soon as users feel that the technology has become too complicated.  Windows Phone will do well with those people (as has Apple).  This is not a slam on either OS, but it will happen.

  • Maschwar77

    This article doesn’t really give any solid reasoning why.  I think the Android OS’ openness is its very appeal.  I just don’t see a Windows Phone gaining any traction.  I don’t understand why David Beren is plugging for Microsoft.

    • JBrowne1012

      Its not david the original source is BGR even in that case that doesn’t make sense though.

    • http://tmonews.com David

      Come on guys, you REALLY need to read the article to see where the source comes from. Direct your blame and/or questioning to the right people and don’t treat me like I’m on someones payroll.

      • Bratty

        You expect some of these guys to READ? How sweet!

    • illegaloperation

      Why Windows Phones will/won’t gain traction?

      It depends on if the carriers want to or not.

    • illegaloperation

      Why Windows Phones will/won’t gain traction?

      It depends on if the carriers want to or not.

  • JBrowne1012

    So every OS besides Windows Phone 7 combined with window mobile is going to go down? HAHAHA nice joke guys at BGR, i see y’all wanted to get next years april fools joke in early.. WP7 is going to go the way of the Zune. iOS will still hold a significant amount of market share, definitely not fall to rock bottom…. Wp7 isn’t good enough in its current state to take on the big boy toys. Microcrap just keeps on paying to hype up their crap and I am NOT upgrading my PC to  run Windows 8 thank you……

    • illegaloperation

      Who said that Windows Phone “isn’t good”?

      Your friend from Phandroid?

    • illegaloperation

      Who said that Windows Phone “isn’t good”?

      Your friend from Phandroid?

  • tspx23

    I can believe this. Interesting stats but I agree Microsoft really has some playing power here and its not Windows Phone 7 that is going to take over but Windows Phone in general. Windows 8 is dropping and will integrate the phone, the pc, and the tablet. This type of integration combined with the Xbox will push a lot of people who like the openess of android but want something more locked down and a fluid integrated system.

    And although the percentage of Android might decrease, Android will continue to increase in numbers. Same with iOS but eventually iOS is going to be pushed into 3rd place in this race. Think about it Windows owns 90 percent of the PC marketshare, and is finally integrating everything–people looking to upgrade will get the latest OS and likewise want to be able to use the same features on their mobile device. 

    • Xavier

      i concur

    • Mjh73

      This.  People just don’t get it.  Consumers typically have no clue about the business ecosystem that is Microsoft’s backyard.  Apple hasn’t ventured there. Linux is a bit player there, at least in the bulk of the SMB and Enterprise markets.  Everyone thinks Microsoft is asleep at the wheel.  Guess they haven’t played with Exchange 2010, Office 365, SQL 2012, Sharepoint, Lync Server, etc. etc. etc.  Windows 8 and Windows Phone are positioned to bridge the disconnect between your work PC, your desk phone, your network server applications, cloud storage, and productivity suites.  I attend a couple of business software conferences each year, and Microsoft is front and center at each one.

      • tspx23

        +1 microsoft dominates and will continue to dominate the enterprise. no contest. 

        they’re not out lol they’re sitting on fat stacks of cash just waiting to creep into the market and take over. 

      • GamesoulMaster

        I don’t really have an opinion about the new Windows phone either way, but you may want to keep something in mind. If 100 million people (just making up a random number, don’t worry) “don’t get it” when it comes to some of Microsoft’s newer products, you can be sure that most of that 100 million will not buy a Windows phone or some of the other products that they already have an equivalent product for with Android, Apple, etc.

        As noted before, the only way Microsoft will make a dent in this market is if they push enough advertising that the average cell phone consumer knows what Microsoft is offering. And they’re going to have to convince people that what they’re offering is solidly better than what people already have. Cloud storage, productivity, ease of use and file/information sharing between devices and apps… Android has all of that, and I’m pretty sure Apple has most or all of that too. Microsoft needs to make people want to put down their Android or Apple phone.

        I’m not saying they can’t do it, because nobody can say that for sure until they get up to full speed. And if they’re smart about it, they could very well pull off the numbers this projection is predicting. But they still have some work to do if they hope to pull that off. And I wish them luck, because I welcome another solid contender into the phone market, just to keep things interesting and keep everybody on their toes with innovation and reliable updates.

  • chum lee

    Pfft. Everyone knows the Facebook Phone will dominate by 2016. ;)

    • Xavier

      lol doing sooooo well after going public lol

  • HeLLo

    What a joke.Predicting what is going to happen in 2016 is laughable.Always the same crap about Android dying,market share dropping etc.If anything does change in 2016 it will be Windows Phone dying out completely and MS focusing more on the tablet market.No one can predict what is going to happen in the future so why even throw out these numbers if they don’t even how the market will look like in the future.Look at the bright side though if this prediction fails in 2016 we can all blame IDC.

    • illegaloperation

      The reason Windows Phone hasn’t sell well until now is because of lack of promotion.

      If carriers decided that it want Windows Phones to sell, they certainly can.

      • GamesoulMaster

        You keep insisting that the carriers decide what sells. I wouldn’t say you’re wrong, but that’s a very narrow-minded way to look at it. Carriers are basically a middle-man, a provider. They can certainly influence what sells and what doesn’t, but unless they all band together for a single cause, they aren’t going to make *that* much of a difference.

        The people who make the phones and buy the phones… they’re what matters most. I’m not sure how I feel about the newer Windows phones yet, but I can tell you this: All the carriers could carry and push as many BlackBerry phones as they want, and I’d still never buy one if I have even one good Android phone to choose. And if I were to try a Windows phone and didn’t like it, the result would be the same. So unless you think the carriers are suddenly going to start carrying more Windows phones than Android phones, it’s a moot point what they want to sell, because the people providing their income (consumers and manufacturers) are what determine their products.

        • illegaloperation

          Have you ever walk into a Verizon Wireless store?

          First thing the rep try to sell you is the Droid Razr.

          Don’t like the Droid Razr, you should buy the Galaxy Nexus.Want a Windows Phone (HTC Trophy)? Sorry, we don’t sell any of those.The only carriers in the US that are “really” selling Windows Phones right now are AT&T and T-Mobile.

          And of cause, T-Mobile only have the low end Windows Phones.

          Verizon Wireless and Sprint aren’t even trying.

        • symbolset

          Sounds like someone failed to motivate Verizon and Sprint. Whose fault is that?

        • illegaloperation

          Ah, a well known troll.

        • tommy

          How are you going to motivate Verizon they are worse than microsoft they are truly the evil empire. stay away from Vz.

        • symbolset

          Somebody has motivated Verizon to sell iPhones. And to a lesser extent, Android phones. Apparently those guys deserve the bonus the Windows Phone business development guy didn’t earn.

      • GamesoulMaster

        But you are definitely right about lack of sales being mostly due to lack of promotion. Options are always good, but not options that people know very little about. And since they’re not impressing anybody with the hardware so far, they need to push the features much harder. If they released a larger amount of Windows phones (using hardware that people want and expect from their phones these days), that alone would pull a little more attention. Combine that with showing people why they should choose Windows over Android or Apple (which they will also need some luck with), and they definitely have a chance.

        So far though, I’m not impressed. If they can’t convince people to put down their Android and Apple phones for a Windows phone (and so far, they haven’t provided a phone that can do that to most people), they’re not going to do as well as they’d prefer.

        • illegaloperation

          And that’s just the problem. People haven’t given Windows Phone a chance.

          Why? Because people don’t know what they are.

          What’s worse is that some of the carrier store reps have no idea either.

  • J-Hop2o6

    Hahahahaha

  • Anann

    The question is how much Microsoft has paid IDC to post this nonsense.

    • JBLmobileG1

      Funny… as I was scrolling down to post my comment yours was already there as to what I was going to say. I wouldn’t be surprised if Microsoft did pay them something. Also it seems like I heard similar things like this before and then it turns out to be far from the truth.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/NWOCIYMX64U6TYAUMI5NSK2O5A chris meyers

    I have to laugh. The amount of wasted money Microsoft has put into the Windows Mobile marketing fiasco has probably now reached $100s of millions. You can be sure this is a paid-for projection. And this kind of Microsoft generated hype with money started all the way back when Windows Phone 7 launched, with grandiose projections. All of that fizzled out, every single part of it. I mean they literally have a MINISCULE percentage of the smartphone market to today, I mean ranging from 3% – 5% according to who you read. Now it’s all Windows Phone 8 hype. LOL Oh, it’ll improve THEN. No it’s never going to improve. There are a whole generation of kids who grew up largely separated or loathful of Microsoft computers, and use Apple and Android products for all aspects of their lives. It won’t change.

    Let me put it more simply, a whole hell of a lot of people will never be caught dead with a Microsoft product, especially a Microsoft mobile product EVER. It is their horrid software experience while monopolizing the PC market which has sealed their reputation. Who the HELL would go back to Microsoft by choice when Apple (the more fashionable), or Android (the more customizable, yet still hip and manufacturer supported) exist? I’ll tell you who, about the 3-5% of the ‘I want to try something new’ nerds, and that’s it.

    • Xavier

      wow….you sound like…angry

      first, people will never be caught dead with a msoft product…um….xbox 360??? is pretty big here state side.  so i guess that goes a “little” with your comment “largely separated or loathful of Microsoft computers. (with so much hate against them…why support it’s gaming cousin)

      as what many has learned, definitely don’t say never..and you’ve mentioned that a lot.  look at the ios nay sayers who sounded just like you did when ios and rim were the main dogs in the market watching/witnessing the stumbled emergence of android.

      windows/msoft may be hated, but there is no denying that it will continue to grow and probably stay in the top 3 of OS’s.

      and the introduction of smartglass…though android friendly…i know msoft is working secretly to it’s own likeliness to it exclusive to window’s phone.

    • Acp7

      Obviously you care more about fitting in with your peers with an Apple device “the more fashionable brand”. Now you can show off your iPhone, and all the cool new features it has, that of course, nobody else knew about. 

      Who said it won’t change. Change happens all the time. Nobody thought Blackberry’s would die, and they did. 3 years ago, everyone doubted Android- Look at it now. Microsoft has taken a new approach. A modern operating system that integrates with all its products. 

      I used to want an iPhone- until i said to myself “Why do i wan’t something EVERYONE has?” I tried windows phone- and i was surprised. I didn’t have any high expectations- but the software quickly grows on you. Its integration is extraordinary. And i felt that i became more productive. I spent less time staring at my home screen and messing with apps, and more time doing other things. I now pity all the people embedded into their iPhone or Android- completely unaware of their surroundings. I’m not saying Android or iOS are bad devices- I’ve just really come to like WP7. 

      Once again, i’ll say this. You should give it a try. I have absolutely fell in love with SkyDrive, Hotmail (where i can actually get a decent email name). And the whole WP7 feel.

      And the tides may truly be changing. Obviously you are not open to change- but most consumers are rather open minded. I get alot of “whoa whats that” or “what phone is that” or “its so different”. Recently some people have even asked me for advice if they should get one too. People seem interested- just not enough people know about WP7- and that’s the biggest killer, awareness. 

      • Evan Nicholson

        I totally agree. I am an android user everyday; but took the Lumia for a test drive over the past couple weeks. It really is a great phone and the UI is smooth and modern. Looking back at my Gingerbread screen was like that feeling I used to get when I went from OSX back to windows – sad. 

        Granted I do not have 4.0 yet (thanks to my carrier); but WP7 is a serious contender.

      • GBGamer

        I completely agree with you. I’m just so entrenched in Google, that I can’t even think of switching.

    • Mjh73

      Then Chris, let me put it simply, “a whole hell of a lot of people that will never be caught dead with a Microsoft product” will also not be getting gainful employment at accounting, law, insurance, medical, engineering, academic, industrial, transportation, government, or other such firms that rely on Microsoft products daily.  Maybe they can hang out in coffee shops with an iPad.  You just don’t get it.  Unless a company is big enough to write its own suite of applications on Linux or Mac, the software just doesn’t exist from major software publishers to run business around the world without Microsoft.  That is their market.  Windows Phone and Windows 8 will make inroads, as usual, into those markets, because frankly, there isn’t an alternative.  Trust me, I don’t like handing over licensing fees to Redmond, but frankly, I need their products to run our apps.  Our software vendors don’t write Mac or Linux versions of audit and tax engagement suites.  Plus, try as I might to find fault with MS to criticize, our virtualized Windows network is humming along quite nicely for several years without a hiccup.

      • Ling

        The US government uses Apple Mac products and Linux these days. Only pockets of HR and administration people still uses Microsoft Products. Most important applications are web based and hosted on Linux.

        • Abolds4397

          That’s not entirely true. I work for the Federal Government and Microsoft  still rules the way today. There may be pockets of Mac but it does not equal to Microsoft. Now maybe that may possibly change but that will take some time.

    • illegaloperation

      Did Steve Ballmer killed your cat ?

  • tommy

    Don’t underestimate the monster from Redmond.
    Why on earth can’t RIM make their hardware run Android, and just implement their freaking features on Android, and sell on the competitive market? everyone loves their HW. What a dummy company!!!

    • http://profile.yahoo.com/NWOCIYMX64U6TYAUMI5NSK2O5A chris meyers

      Yeah, I live not far from Redmond, that’s an utterly lost company. They know they have to get into mobile, and they can’t make an in. PCs sell NOW, PCs will not be selling in 5-10 years as a mainstream consumer product with mass sales. It’ll all be mobile devices, tablets, smartphones, etc. And their Windows 8 is grasping at the last vestiges of the PC market with everything they have. And they have very little. Go ask ANY PERSON under 30 if they’d get an iPad now or a Windows 8 computer/ tablet. It’s just a matter of time before ‘Redmond’ goes the way of Yahoo and RIM. It’ll be stretched out for about 20 years because of their monopoly dominance in computers, and old timers who will cling to computers, but the trends are all wrong for Microsoft.

      • tommy

        I would have to argue that you still do serious work on PC’s and non-serious work on IPad. My kid starting as a freshman at college next year uses an ASUS laptop with windows 7 and does not want to try to write and print papers on an IPad.
        I don’t think the Redmond Beast is going away, I think they’ll do quite well. I hate Bing. I hate most Microsoft products but I have to use it because I don’t use ‘Nix at work. Thank Good Goog God I can live as though crap like Bing does not exist. It’s like a bad dream when I see it. A nightmare I can forget.

      • Acp7

        Although its true that the PC is loosing market- you can’t completely abolish it. As nice as tablets and “iPads” are, there not very practical when it comes to sitting down and trying to get work done. I’d like to see you try and type up a new 10 page paper every few days on your iPad- and get it done faster than your Laptop.

        As much as people are hating on Computers- Ultrabooks are becoming increasingly popular- and you can’t deny that. Not only that, but you can’t judge the wants of consumers when a product hasn’t even been formally released (Windows 8). 

      • Mjh73

        Here is what you are missing:
        In the business world, and I don’t mean just mobile salespeople and others that may use tablets and smartphones as their primary computing devices, but real business like banking, R&D, professional services, medicine, logistics, and the like, the PC has been and will continue to be king.  Until tablets can incorporate serious horsepower coupled with diverse peripherals, including seamlessly driving multiple high resolution monitors, and then major mainstream business software developers to produce serious and useful software clients for tablet platforms, the PC isn’t going anywhere.I always hear “the end of the PC is near”.  Awesome.  I welcome it.  In the meantime why doesn’t someone point out a best of breed accounting or legal services suite you can run natively on a tablet (remote controlling a Windows RDP session doesn’t count, you’re still running a PC) and then show me how to display said application suite across four large HD monitors at once.  Show me that and I’ll be next in line.  In the meantime, let’s stop worrying what “ANY PERSON” cares about getting an iPad.  There is real money is the business world.  Microsoft knows this.  Windows Phone 8 and Windows 8 aren’t about the consumerization of IT as much as the convergence of a business platform into something tangible and compelling.  Microsoft  isn’t going anywhere – new products like Exchange in the cloud and Office 365 are very strong offerings and compelling for business users everywhere.  And yes, I’m even looking forward to Windows 8.Understand the target markets.Signed, not a Windows fanboy, an SMB professional services IT Director and happy Windows (and iPad and Android phone) user

  • kevin

    nice try, Bill Gates…

    • illegaloperation

      Nice try, Larry Page.

  • Judd Aunoien

    Doubt it, Windows Phone isnt all that great. Not a huge fan of the whole Metro look.

    • illegaloperation

      What part? Also, the Metro interface makes the phone really east to use.

    • Fray26

       And you think Android is? That shitty ass OS. Nothing but lag and full of bugs.

  • Kees Shadley

    There are a few companies that just aren’t going to be in the smartphone limelight anytime soon, if ever again.  RIM, Nokia, and Microsoft.  Starting from scratch is way different than picking up the pieces after you have fallen apart.

    • illegaloperation

      You have to start somewhere.

  • http://twitter.com/efjay01 Ef Jay

    Nothing like rallying the troops with a little anti-Microsoft story, right? If there was any doubt that this was an anti WP site that’s been out to rest by this poor article based on the same analysts that would be ignored in an anti-android story. Sadly for you though, WP will be around for a long time, regardless of numbers. 

  • Bryan Baggett

    How do they even base these studies on what will be selling in 2016 or what the market share will be?  Such a dumb study.

    This was only an “on paper study” to boost Redmond’s anticipated revenue for the shareholders and not a real world study..

    • illegaloperation

      Doubt it.

      Up until recently, Windows Phone has received almost zero promotion.Carriers decide what sales and what doesn’t.

  • Digga2012

    IDC are just muppets, I laugh at the way the are precise to a tenth of a percent !!!!!!!!

    This will be as accurate as their report in 2010 that said symbian will be the biggest phone os until 2013……………..

    http://www.mobileburn.com/news.jsp?Id=8621

    as I said………muppets

    • illegaloperation

      Looks like that estimate was overshot by a year.

  • Winski

    Tainted crack…. Winders and it’s builders WILL BE GONE by 2016…..

    • illegaloperation

      Troll will be troll.